Comments on: Coronado Disconnect http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/ Tracking the Arcadia and San Gabriel Valley Housing Market Sat, 04 Feb 2012 08:44:24 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: SavedbyGrace http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/comment-page-1/#comment-916 SavedbyGrace Thu, 20 Mar 2008 19:30:04 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/#comment-916 Agreed. It doesn't matter who these "pros" are...Taiwanese, Japanese, Martians...doesn't matter. A risky investment with a bad ROI and negative cash flow is a bad investment. Especially one that's expected to continue to deteriorate over the next few years. Agreed.

It doesn’t matter who these “pros” are…Taiwanese, Japanese, Martians…doesn’t matter. A risky investment with a bad ROI and negative cash flow is a bad investment. Especially one that’s expected to continue to deteriorate over the next few years.

]]> By: SavedbyGrace http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/comment-page-1/#comment-915 SavedbyGrace Thu, 20 Mar 2008 19:24:45 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/#comment-915 I guess we'll all see if the rich Taiwanese really can hold up Arcadia house values. Being able to do so is one thing, but actually willing to jump into a struggling RE market is another. Personally, I don't see it happening. Only time will tell. If they are "professional RE investors" then they should be serious about selling their property because the market isn't about to turn around anytime soon. I guess we’ll all see if the rich Taiwanese really can hold up Arcadia house values. Being able to do so is one thing, but actually willing to jump into a struggling RE market is another. Personally, I don’t see it happening. Only time will tell.

If they are “professional RE investors” then they should be serious about selling their property because the market isn’t about to turn around anytime soon.

]]> By: Mike S http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/comment-page-1/#comment-912 Mike S Thu, 20 Mar 2008 16:34:45 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/#comment-912 Neat you know the owners. Hope they are very rich in deed. The Japanese weren't rich enough in the early 90's and doubt these Taiwanese "pro's" fare better. Don't know where you get they break even. Just given your figure they are easily upside down $300--to-$600 per month given insurance ($90/m), tax ($750/m), management fee ($200/m), biennial tenant turnover (amortized $125/m), incidentals (we'll call it "0") maintenance (amortized [generously] at $200/m). Multiply it by 20, that's $6k-to-$12k of carry a month and I suspect it's toward the upper end of that figure. Consider price depreciation over the next decade with inflation and expect they'll start losing their empire around 2012. MLS Neat you know the owners. Hope they are very rich in deed. The Japanese weren’t rich enough in the early 90′s and doubt these Taiwanese “pro’s” fare better.

Don’t know where you get they break even. Just given your figure they are easily upside down $300–to-$600 per month given insurance ($90/m), tax ($750/m), management fee ($200/m), biennial tenant turnover (amortized $125/m), incidentals (we’ll call it “0″) maintenance (amortized [generously] at $200/m).

Multiply it by 20, that’s $6k-to-$12k of carry a month and I suspect it’s toward the upper end of that figure.

Consider price depreciation over the next decade with inflation and expect they’ll start losing their empire around 2012.

MLS

]]> By: Corntrollio http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/comment-page-1/#comment-910 Corntrollio Thu, 20 Mar 2008 08:07:31 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/#comment-910 They're obviously not serious at that price. But I don't think these people owning 20 properties is going to prop up much of anything if no one is willing to buy. They’re obviously not serious at that price. But I don’t think these people owning 20 properties is going to prop up much of anything if no one is willing to buy.

]]> By: AClover http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/comment-page-1/#comment-909 AClover Thu, 20 Mar 2008 06:42:51 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/#comment-909 Actually I know a little bit info on this house. The owners are professional RE investors with over 20+ properties in Arcadia alone. Yes, those Rich Taiwaness can really hold up the Arcadia house values. $533K loan with 5% interest only generates ~$2500 mortgage. The house can be easily rented out for $3200. So the worst is break even if you lump in the property tax, etc. I think they are not really serious in selling this property at all. My current market value estimation on this property is about $830K. BTW, I notice that the same listing agent is also selling the 310 South Golden West, also in the peacock village area. Again, the price is abnormal high. Actually I know a little bit info on this house. The owners are professional RE investors with over 20+ properties in Arcadia alone. Yes, those Rich Taiwaness can really hold up the Arcadia house values. $533K loan with 5% interest only generates ~$2500 mortgage. The house can be easily rented out for $3200. So the worst is break even if you lump in the property tax, etc. I think they are not really serious in selling this property at all. My current market value estimation on this property is about $830K.

BTW, I notice that the same listing agent is also selling the 310 South Golden West, also in the peacock village area. Again, the price is abnormal high.

]]> By: SavedbyGrace http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/comment-page-1/#comment-908 SavedbyGrace Thu, 20 Mar 2008 06:08:40 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/#comment-908 Thanks for your insight on rental management. Thanks for your insight on rental management.

]]> By: Mike S http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/comment-page-1/#comment-906 Mike S Thu, 20 Mar 2008 03:52:38 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/#comment-906 Good management is 6 1/2% to 8% with a reasonable fee (~$100) and expenses when tenants turnover. Seems like all the competent managers settle in that range as a fair return for their time/effort. Oddly enough, I found those charging less AND charging more were lousy property managers. In fact, the worst I ever dealt with was stiffing me for 10%. Like any heuristic, mileage may vary but I've found it a good rule of thumb for SoCal. Property condition matters obviously. No surprise this heuristic reflects how absurdly overpriced SoCal is. I stuck my money in commodities for the year and won't bother looking until next winter. One final note. Money isn't everything--I actually need to like a property. Amazes me people put up with owning crapshacks for the cash when they can clear about the same on something decent. Decent house = decent renters. Owning an embarrassment only makes sense for commercial property. Good management is 6 1/2% to 8% with a reasonable fee (~$100) and expenses when tenants turnover. Seems like all the competent managers settle in that range as a fair return for their time/effort. Oddly enough, I found those charging less AND charging more were lousy property managers. In fact, the worst I ever dealt with was stiffing me for 10%.

Like any heuristic, mileage may vary but I’ve found it a good rule of thumb for SoCal. Property condition matters obviously. No surprise this heuristic reflects how absurdly overpriced SoCal is. I stuck my money in commodities for the year and won’t bother looking until next winter.

One final note. Money isn’t everything–I actually need to like a property. Amazes me people put up with owning crapshacks for the cash when they can clear about the same on something decent. Decent house = decent renters. Owning an embarrassment only makes sense for commercial property.

]]> By: KY http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/comment-page-1/#comment-904 KY Thu, 20 Mar 2008 02:49:21 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/#comment-904 hey capbreeze, Thanks for the info. i grew up in Minnesota, and never had to really deal with keepin up with the Jones'. Hopefully my MN simpleness will rub off on my kids. My wife grew up in LA, and she's changed a lot already. She actually doesn't really enjoy shopping anymore! I'm thinking of buying in late 2010. If you stay outta my way, i'll stay outta yours :) hey capbreeze,

Thanks for the info. i grew up in Minnesota, and never had to really deal with keepin up with the Jones’. Hopefully my MN simpleness will rub off on my kids. My wife grew up in LA, and she’s changed a lot already. She actually doesn’t really enjoy shopping anymore!

I’m thinking of buying in late 2010. If you stay outta my way, i’ll stay outta yours :)

]]> By: KY http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/comment-page-1/#comment-903 KY Thu, 20 Mar 2008 02:42:06 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/#comment-903 Hey Mike, So when you're scouting around for rental property, you just try to see if you can rent it for 20% above P/I? What other numbers do you look at in your initial screening process? How much does management comp. cost? Hey Mike,

So when you’re scouting around for rental property, you just try to see if you can rent it for 20% above P/I? What other numbers do you look at in your initial screening process? How much does management comp. cost?

]]> By: KY http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/comment-page-1/#comment-902 KY Thu, 20 Mar 2008 02:34:35 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/19/coronado-disconnect/#comment-902 i'm sure you're joking about the S. Pas blog, but if you guys are thinking of expanding your content in the future, that'd be awesome! i’m sure you’re joking about the S. Pas blog, but if you guys are thinking of expanding your content in the future, that’d be awesome!

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