Comments on: High Up in the Hills http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/ Tracking the Arcadia and San Gabriel Valley Housing Market Thu, 11 Mar 2010 12:37:20 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Corntrollio http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/comment-page-1/#comment-1612 Corntrollio Wed, 16 Apr 2008 21:21:26 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/#comment-1612 I never quite understood why one would advertise a cooktop and many other silly things that realtors like to point out about properties. It just makes me wonder what's wrong with the house if that's the best thing the agent could say. You're advertising as a "prime feature" something that costs between $300 and $800 for a house that costs $900K. Are people really that gullible? I never quite understood why one would advertise a cooktop and many other silly things that realtors like to point out about properties. It just makes me wonder what’s wrong with the house if that’s the best thing the agent could say. You’re advertising as a “prime feature” something that costs between $300 and $800 for a house that costs $900K. Are people really that gullible?

]]> By: SavedByGrace http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/comment-page-1/#comment-1611 SavedByGrace Wed, 16 Apr 2008 19:57:17 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/#comment-1611 I need to find my data on Arcadia median prices from 1999-2007. I don't have the exact numbers right now, but it was about 2-2.5X factor. The city's median home values in the 1999/2000 were in the low $300k and by early 2007 it was at $815k. That's a pretty big percentage increase to me, but perhaps it's still less than what the rest of LA county experience. So...LA county on a whole may drop 50% and Arcadia might only drop 40%. I'll buy that ;) I need to find my data on Arcadia median prices from 1999-2007. I don’t have the exact numbers right now, but it was about 2-2.5X factor. The city’s median home values in the 1999/2000 were in the low $300k and by early 2007 it was at $815k. That’s a pretty big percentage increase to me, but perhaps it’s still less than what the rest of LA county experience.

So…LA county on a whole may drop 50% and Arcadia might only drop 40%. I’ll buy that ;)

]]> By: Sean http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/comment-page-1/#comment-1586 Sean Wed, 16 Apr 2008 06:51:10 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/#comment-1586 One big difference between buyers today and bubble-buyers is that today most buyers know we are in a bubble. And buyers are faced with the reality a 10-20% down payment with a 30-year fixed loan. Ouch, where is that teaser rate and kickback for a Hummer when you need it? In the past buying a home felt like free money or a huge mistake if you didn't get in on the action; now you almost feel like in idiot buying at these high prices. Unfortunately, some people still have there head in a cloud or they trust realtors. Anyway, as pointed out by a trusted realtor, this home has a "Italian 5-burner gas cooktop" so it has to be worth the money. One big difference between buyers today and bubble-buyers is that today most buyers know we are in a bubble. And buyers are faced with the reality a 10-20% down payment with a 30-year fixed loan. Ouch, where is that teaser rate and kickback for a Hummer when you need it?

In the past buying a home felt like free money or a huge mistake if you didn’t get in on the action; now you almost feel like in idiot buying at these high prices.

Unfortunately, some people still have there head in a cloud or they trust realtors. Anyway, as pointed out by a trusted realtor, this home has a “Italian 5-burner gas cooktop” so it has to be worth the money.

]]> By: Corntrollio http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/comment-page-1/#comment-1571 Corntrollio Wed, 16 Apr 2008 04:34:52 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/#comment-1571 I think Arcadia might drop less than the lower priced neighborhoods because it probably didn't increase as much. The lower priced neighborhoods had a higher percentage increase, so they'll probably have a higher percentage decrease when all is said and done. See e.g. http://westside-bubble.blogspot.com/2008/03/january-case-shiller.html -- the high tier vs. low tier. I think Arcadia might drop less than the lower priced neighborhoods because it probably didn’t increase as much. The lower priced neighborhoods had a higher percentage increase, so they’ll probably have a higher percentage decrease when all is said and done. See e.g. http://westside-bubble.blogspot.com/2008/03/january-case-shiller.html — the high tier vs. low tier.

]]> By: SavedbyGrace http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/comment-page-1/#comment-1567 SavedbyGrace Wed, 16 Apr 2008 01:19:15 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/#comment-1567 Good for you. I try to do the same thing reading CalculatedRisk and the more I read, the more scared i get. Housing is just one part of the debacle and if things are really as bad as I think they are, then we have a lot more to worry about than just a 35-50% housing market correction. Good for you. I try to do the same thing reading CalculatedRisk and the more I read, the more scared i get. Housing is just one part of the debacle and if things are really as bad as I think they are, then we have a lot more to worry about than just a 35-50% housing market correction.

]]> By: SavedbyGrace http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/comment-page-1/#comment-1566 SavedbyGrace Wed, 16 Apr 2008 01:16:33 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/#comment-1566 AClover - I see your point, but I look at it from the flip side of it. Why do you think Arcadia will be affected less than other cities in this cycle? I've looked long and hard for Arcadia specific information for the past few decades and couldn't find any. If anyone has access to this please please send me the information so I can run some analyses on it. This site doesn't make money and I don't feel like paying for it ;) You're entitled to do as you wish so I can't stop you from believing what you wish, but I personally won't take any word that comes from a realtor as more than a grain of salt. In any case, let's assume your realtor's info is correct in that Arcadia dropped 20% in the previous cycle. If that were true, that is consistent with the drop that the rest of Los Angeles County experienced (19.5% peak to bottom over 7 years). http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/lacounty_medianprice_82-07.jpg As you can see, the bubble is MUCH bigger this time around and I can't find any supporting data that tells me prices will hold up better in Arcadia than in other socal cities. Incomes certainly have not doubled over the last few years and I'm still seeing much lower rent comparisons when I do property profiles. http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/30/inventory-market-report-32908/ TheArcadian has reported last month that Arcadia home sales have dropped 28% and median price of homes sold dropped 20% from this time last year. The data says that prices have ALREADY dropped 20% and I certainly don't think now is the "bottom." With the oncoming loan resets, foreclosures and pent-up volume in the next few years - I just simply don't see how or why Arcadia would be at the bottom now. AClover – I see your point, but I look at it from the flip side of it. Why do you think Arcadia will be affected less than other cities in this cycle?

I’ve looked long and hard for Arcadia specific information for the past few decades and couldn’t find any. If anyone has access to this please please send me the information so I can run some analyses on it. This site doesn’t make money and I don’t feel like paying for it ;)

You’re entitled to do as you wish so I can’t stop you from believing what you wish, but I personally won’t take any word that comes from a realtor as more than a grain of salt. In any case, let’s assume your realtor’s info is correct in that Arcadia dropped 20% in the previous cycle. If that were true, that is consistent with the drop that the rest of Los Angeles County experienced (19.5% peak to bottom over 7 years). http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/lacounty_medianprice_82-07.jpg

As you can see, the bubble is MUCH bigger this time around and I can’t find any supporting data that tells me prices will hold up better in Arcadia than in other socal cities. Incomes certainly have not doubled over the last few years and I’m still seeing much lower rent comparisons when I do property profiles.

http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/30/inventory-market-report-32908/
TheArcadian has reported last month that Arcadia home sales have dropped 28% and median price of homes sold dropped 20% from this time last year. The data says that prices have ALREADY dropped 20% and I certainly don’t think now is the “bottom.” With the oncoming loan resets, foreclosures and pent-up volume in the next few years – I just simply don’t see how or why Arcadia would be at the bottom now.

]]> By: SavedByGrace http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/comment-page-1/#comment-1565 SavedByGrace Wed, 16 Apr 2008 01:03:36 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/#comment-1565 Someone at work yesterday told me that their friend just bought a house to flip. I almost fell out of my chair. America is in for a rude awakening and it's not going to be pretty. I think (and hope) that a by-product of this housing correction will be a shift in mentality about finances and consumerism. Many have been living life through debt and the house of cards have finally tumbled. IrvineRenter's post on here sums it up well http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/southern-californias-cultural-pathology/ Someone at work yesterday told me that their friend just bought a house to flip. I almost fell out of my chair. America is in for a rude awakening and it’s not going to be pretty. I think (and hope) that a by-product of this housing correction will be a shift in mentality about finances and consumerism. Many have been living life through debt and the house of cards have finally tumbled.

IrvineRenter’s post on here sums it up well http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/southern-californias-cultural-pathology/

]]> By: SavedByGrace http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/comment-page-1/#comment-1564 SavedByGrace Wed, 16 Apr 2008 00:59:49 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/#comment-1564 I think places like Arcadia and other parts of the SGV aren't showing up much in this 24% because of the loans used. So far, the declines we're seeing is a result of the subprime explosion. It's hard to find loan data to verify this, but Arcadia probably has more Alt-A loans than subprime and that could be why we're seeing the delay in price corrections. The majority of the Alt-A loans haven't reseted yet and once those go off, I think we'll see that reflected in the local market. I think places like Arcadia and other parts of the SGV aren’t showing up much in this 24% because of the loans used. So far, the declines we’re seeing is a result of the subprime explosion. It’s hard to find loan data to verify this, but Arcadia probably has more Alt-A loans than subprime and that could be why we’re seeing the delay in price corrections. The majority of the Alt-A loans haven’t reseted yet and once those go off, I think we’ll see that reflected in the local market.

]]> By: missedthebubble http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/comment-page-1/#comment-1562 missedthebubble Tue, 15 Apr 2008 23:14:16 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/#comment-1562 I probably would be a little bit more agressive, but I agree with the 20% range.. Of course, that is if everything stays the same. I am a big fan of Itulip.com and other economic blogs, and try to figure out what that means at the local level for me. I think the Colorado Commons project in Monrovia is going to get interesting, and then they are starting another project that is similiar just down the street. Driving through Arc/Mon lately was funny, but the laughter has started to turn... into something similiar to fear. (Myrtle, has a lot of vacant stores) Why fear? Because of "Unintended Consequences" I probably would be a little bit more agressive, but I agree with the 20% range..

Of course, that is if everything stays the same. I am a big fan of Itulip.com and other economic blogs, and try to figure out what that means at the local level for me.

I think the Colorado Commons project in Monrovia is going to get interesting, and then they are starting another project that is similiar just down the street. Driving through Arc/Mon lately was funny, but the laughter has started to turn… into something similiar to fear. (Myrtle, has a lot of vacant stores)

Why fear? Because of “Unintended Consequences”

]]> By: AClover http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/comment-page-1/#comment-1561 AClover Tue, 15 Apr 2008 22:51:00 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/15/high-up-in-the-hills/#comment-1561 I agree that no city will be immuned from the current RE slow-down. It is just how bad it will get. I guess what I tried to say was that Arcadia will be affected less than other cities (14%-20% vs 30%-40%) in this cycle. If someone can provide some historical data for the previous cycle (90s) with Zip code vs drop percentage, it would be quite informative and helpful. My agent said that San Marino only dropped about 10% total in previous cycle. If that is true, 20% for Arcadia should be in the ballpark. I agree that no city will be immuned from the current RE slow-down. It is just how bad it will get. I guess what I tried to say was that Arcadia will be affected less than other cities (14%-20% vs 30%-40%) in this cycle.

If someone can provide some historical data for the previous cycle (90s) with Zip code vs drop percentage, it would be quite informative and helpful. My agent said that San Marino only dropped about 10% total in previous cycle. If that is true, 20% for Arcadia should be in the ballpark.

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