Comments on: On the Crest http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/ Tracking the Arcadia and San Gabriel Valley Housing Market Sat, 04 Feb 2012 08:44:24 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: SavedbyGrace http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/comment-page-1/#comment-1620 SavedbyGrace Thu, 17 Apr 2008 03:27:53 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/#comment-1620 That just shows how out of whack everything still is. During the peak of the bubble, LA county as a whole had price-to-income ratios upwards of 10-11 and Arcadia was in the same ballpark. Surely you have folks in the 90th or 95th percentile that make $160k/yr, but that 10% of the population cannot sustain the over-valued market of the entire city. Corntrollio - Thanks for the link to Zipskinny :) That just shows how out of whack everything still is. During the peak of the bubble, LA county as a whole had price-to-income ratios upwards of 10-11 and Arcadia was in the same ballpark. Surely you have folks in the 90th or 95th percentile that make $160k/yr, but that 10% of the population cannot sustain the over-valued market of the entire city.

Corntrollio – Thanks for the link to Zipskinny :)

]]> By: missedthebubble http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/comment-page-1/#comment-1615 missedthebubble Thu, 17 Apr 2008 01:25:16 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/#comment-1615 Corntrollio, Thanks for the data and the link. My numbers were off, but if you are in the top 90% of income in a community, and the price of a decent house is 6 to 7 times your income... something is way wrong. Corntrollio,

Thanks for the data and the link.

My numbers were off, but if you are in the top 90% of income in a community, and the price of a decent house is 6 to 7 times your income… something is way wrong.

]]> By: missedthebubble http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/comment-page-1/#comment-1614 missedthebubble Wed, 16 Apr 2008 21:29:10 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/#comment-1614 One other comment that I have... is.... How is Arcadia/Monrovia as community going to fare through all the things headed our way...? The RE meltdown and the end of cheap oil or peak oil if you will... With the price of oil toping $115 today, I have come to the conclusion that we are on the crazy train... One other comment that I have… is….

How is Arcadia/Monrovia as community going to fare through all the things headed our way…?

The RE meltdown and the end of cheap oil or peak oil if you will…

With the price of oil toping $115 today, I have come to the conclusion that we are on the crazy train…

]]> By: Corntrollio http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/comment-page-1/#comment-1613 Corntrollio Wed, 16 Apr 2008 21:26:10 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/#comment-1613 Not to burst your bubble (pun intended), but 95th percentile nationwide is over $160K nowadays. 80th percentile is probably $85-90K. Median income in 91006 is more like $58K (http://www.zipskinny.com/index.php?zip=91006), and approximately 25% of folks in 91006 earn $100K or more. But your analysis still holds, just on a smaller margin. Not to burst your bubble (pun intended), but 95th percentile nationwide is over $160K nowadays. 80th percentile is probably $85-90K. Median income in 91006 is more like $58K (http://www.zipskinny.com/index.php?zip=91006), and approximately 25% of folks in 91006 earn $100K or more. But your analysis still holds, just on a smaller margin.

]]> By: missedthebubble http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/comment-page-1/#comment-1610 missedthebubble Wed, 16 Apr 2008 19:44:44 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/#comment-1610 Holy synergy batman.... That is the house... and my math is about right on that one, although it looks like I am on the high side with it. I got two promotions in the same year, and I was working at one of the fastest growing companies in the SGV area at the time. It was soon bought and moved to Burbank... any guesses.. and I am no longer there. Anyway, I like that house because the area it is in, I have never walked through it or anything, but I am guessing that they need the rent to cover their I/O loan, and that would help them wait out the market.... they dont' know that when the market comes out of the turn... you will be starting at 50% of the current price... it will take 10 to 12 years to return to 2006 levels.... Holy synergy batman….

That is the house… and my math is about right on that one, although it looks like I am on the high side with it.

I got two promotions in the same year, and I was working at one of the fastest growing companies in the SGV area at the time. It was soon bought and moved to Burbank… any guesses.. and I am no longer there.

Anyway, I like that house because the area it is in, I have never walked through it or anything, but I am guessing that they need the rent to cover their I/O loan, and that would help them wait out the market…. they dont’ know that when the market comes out of the turn… you will be starting at 50% of the current price… it will take 10 to 12 years to return to 2006 levels….

]]> By: SavedByGrace http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/comment-page-1/#comment-1609 SavedByGrace Wed, 16 Apr 2008 19:31:41 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/#comment-1609 Wow you made 15-20% gains in income year over year?! Let me know where to apply haha :) Did you mean 271 Longley Way to the west of El Monte? I did a profile on that property last month http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/10/a-long-way-to-go/ The links expired, but the same house has been re-listed on Redfin yet again. Wow you made 15-20% gains in income year over year?! Let me know where to apply haha :)

Did you mean 271 Longley Way to the west of El Monte? I did a profile on that property last month http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/03/10/a-long-way-to-go/ The links expired, but the same house has been re-listed on Redfin yet again.

]]> By: SavedByGrace http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/comment-page-1/#comment-1608 SavedByGrace Wed, 16 Apr 2008 19:28:32 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/#comment-1608 I have to dig up my data, but I don't believe we're in 2003-2004 territory yet. Arcadia median prices continued to rise into 06 and 07 so we're probably just into 2005 prices. February 2008 median price of SOLD homes was down 20.6% YOY to $647k. That's around 2005 prices. I have to dig up my data, but I don’t believe we’re in 2003-2004 territory yet. Arcadia median prices continued to rise into 06 and 07 so we’re probably just into 2005 prices.

February 2008 median price of SOLD homes was down 20.6% YOY to $647k. That’s around 2005 prices.

]]> By: TheArcadian http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/comment-page-1/#comment-1607 TheArcadian Wed, 16 Apr 2008 19:18:29 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/#comment-1607 Even in this market the seller wants a 46% return on his home after owning it for just 4 years. Although I don't blame him for wanting to cash out those "gains", his listing price is reflective of how out of touch people are with current market conditions. This is a race to the bottom and the smart ones have already sold and are waiting on the sidelines. Even in this market the seller wants a 46% return on his home after owning it for just 4 years. Although I don’t blame him for wanting to cash out those “gains”, his listing price is reflective of how out of touch people are with current market conditions.

This is a race to the bottom and the smart ones have already sold and are waiting on the sidelines.

]]> By: missedthebubble http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/comment-page-1/#comment-1606 missedthebubble Wed, 16 Apr 2008 19:17:04 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/#comment-1606 626chump, Totally agree, I have been tearing my hair out, beating myself up, watching home prices going up and up. In 2003... I thought they were a bit high, but that just means I will have to make more money. Even when I made 15% to 20% gains in income year over year, I wasn't keeping up. At first, I thought maybe all those real estate peeps are right, but my grandfather lived through the GD, and his motto... "always plan for everything going wrong, and I mean everything going wrong, and if it makes sense then...." So I stood on the sidelines... Now it is a waiting game... I go to open houses, and think about the profile of the person that the house is supposedly priced at or "marketed" at... There is a house on Longley way, that is asking 900k... and I have an internal price at 450k to 600k. I sort of feel like making a offer... love to see that house profiled, east of el monte 626chump,

Totally agree, I have been tearing my hair out, beating myself up, watching home prices going up and up. In 2003… I thought they were a bit high, but that just means I will have to make more money. Even when I made 15% to 20% gains in income year over year, I wasn’t keeping up. At first, I thought maybe all those real estate peeps are right, but my grandfather lived through the GD, and his motto… “always plan for everything going wrong, and I mean everything going wrong, and if it makes sense then….” So I stood on the sidelines…

Now it is a waiting game… I go to open houses, and think about the profile of the person that the house is supposedly priced at or “marketed” at… There is a house on Longley way, that is asking 900k… and I have an internal price at 450k to 600k. I sort of feel like making a offer…

love to see that house profiled, east of el monte

]]> By: TheArcadian http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/comment-page-1/#comment-1605 TheArcadian Wed, 16 Apr 2008 19:07:44 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/16/on-the-crest/#comment-1605 MTB, that's just silly. Why would someone want to pay $3,000 a month for a house when they can pay $5,000 and say they live in a MILLION dollar home? The bragging rights alone is worth the $300-400k premium. :) I know my income did not double over the last 3 years. After working hard to save up for a decent downpayment, we are rewarded with enough money to comfortably purchase a rundown condo in Arcadia. MTB, that’s just silly. Why would someone want to pay $3,000 a month for a house when they can pay $5,000 and say they live in a MILLION dollar home? The bragging rights alone is worth the $300-400k premium.

:)

I know my income did not double over the last 3 years. After working hard to save up for a decent downpayment, we are rewarded with enough money to comfortably purchase a rundown condo in Arcadia.

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