Comments on: Say What? http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/ Tracking the Arcadia and San Gabriel Valley Housing Market Sat, 04 Feb 2012 08:44:24 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: TheArcadian http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/comment-page-1/#comment-2028 TheArcadian Thu, 01 May 2008 21:48:16 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/#comment-2028 I find it interesting that now the tables have turned to "Sell Now or get left behind holding a bagful of debt and the fastest depreciating asset on the market." I find it interesting that now the tables have turned to “Sell Now or get left behind holding a bagful of debt and the fastest depreciating asset on the market.”

]]> By: Headless Unicorn Guy http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/comment-page-1/#comment-2027 Headless Unicorn Guy Thu, 01 May 2008 20:46:47 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/#comment-2027 <i>“buy now before you get priced out forever...”</i> i.e. <b>Housing Armageddon: Don't get <i>Left Behind</i>!!!</b> “buy now before you get priced out forever…”

i.e. Housing Armageddon: Don’t get Left Behind!!!

]]> By: Headless Unicorn Guy http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/comment-page-1/#comment-2026 Headless Unicorn Guy Thu, 01 May 2008 20:44:54 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/#comment-2026 And what happens when foreclosures drop the price so much that banks holding the bag unload them to "Section 8s", i.e. welfare bums? An article today in MSN News (Money section) mentioned that's starting to happen. Add in conversions to Mexiflopper "clown houses" and/or McMansion crack houses and KFI's mention of squatter "how to do it" websites, the next 18 years could be interesting for a family with 3 kids stuck in their house. And what happens when foreclosures drop the price so much that banks holding the bag unload them to “Section 8s”, i.e. welfare bums? An article today in MSN News (Money section) mentioned that’s starting to happen. Add in conversions to Mexiflopper “clown houses” and/or McMansion crack houses and KFI’s mention of squatter “how to do it” websites, the next 18 years could be interesting for a family with 3 kids stuck in their house.

]]> By: capbreeze http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/comment-page-1/#comment-2006 capbreeze Wed, 30 Apr 2008 20:49:44 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/#comment-2006 Let's say in 2010 the house's market value is at $700k (22% decrease). From 2008, not only did they pay $200k too much, over the next 18 years they would have paid an additional $45,000 in additional property taxes (200k x 18yrs x 1.25%). After 18 years, they would have also paid more in homeowners insurance and mortgage interest on that $720k 7% jumbo loan. Maybe they could catch a little break if they can qualify to refinance to a conforming. It's sounds as though it was worth it to them for whatever reason they wanted or needed to buy now. I respect that if they are truly in a sound financial position to be able to afford it. It also makes sense if they had been or were going to be soon paying for private school for three kids ($12k tuition x 3 kids = $36k per year). And, I'm all for more property tax money that can go toward the Arcadia Schools! Personally, Sean's got it right for me. I'm brown bagging my lunch and thanking God for my job every day. I think I've even talked my spouse into staying put in our little place with our kids for a couple of years. Paying less for a house means we can hopefully retire sooner :) Let’s say in 2010 the house’s market value is at $700k (22% decrease). From 2008, not only did they pay $200k too much, over the next 18 years they would have paid an additional $45,000 in additional property taxes (200k x 18yrs x 1.25%). After 18 years, they would have also paid more in homeowners insurance and mortgage interest on that $720k 7% jumbo loan. Maybe they could catch a little break if they can qualify to refinance to a conforming.

It’s sounds as though it was worth it to them for whatever reason they wanted or needed to buy now. I respect that if they are truly in a sound financial position to be able to afford it. It also makes sense if they had been or were going to be soon paying for private school for three kids ($12k tuition x 3 kids = $36k per year). And, I’m all for more property tax money that can go toward the Arcadia Schools!

Personally, Sean’s got it right for me. I’m brown bagging my lunch and thanking God for my job every day. I think I’ve even talked my spouse into staying put in our little place with our kids for a couple of years. Paying less for a house means we can hopefully retire sooner :)

]]> By: TheArcadian http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/comment-page-1/#comment-1988 TheArcadian Wed, 30 Apr 2008 05:06:07 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/#comment-1988 tracker, Commercial property will not be hit as hard as residential due to the nature of commercial financing. Most lenders base their financing on property cashflow (i.e. potential leasing rate). So unless an area experiences sudden high vacancy for commercial property and therefore driving down rents, I don't see prices coming down at the rate residential property is. BUT because all lenders (both residential and commercial) have tightened up their lending standards, we are definitely seeing a lot of downward pressure on commercial real estate values. tracker,

Commercial property will not be hit as hard as residential due to the nature of commercial financing. Most lenders base their financing on property cashflow (i.e. potential leasing rate). So unless an area experiences sudden high vacancy for commercial property and therefore driving down rents, I don’t see prices coming down at the rate residential property is.

BUT because all lenders (both residential and commercial) have tightened up their lending standards, we are definitely seeing a lot of downward pressure on commercial real estate values.

]]> By: tracker http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/comment-page-1/#comment-1983 tracker Wed, 30 Apr 2008 00:33:14 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/#comment-1983 Its like the Iraq war - at the onset people literally wanted to stone you if you opposed it. But it slowly (too slowly) unraveled, and before we knew it public opinion swayed completely towards the opposite direction. For the housing crisis, I think the general public is only beginning to wake up. Its going to take a bit more time for the average American to realize just how serious this shit storm will become. Throw all the Credit Suisse graphs or Case Shiller data that you want at 'em, its never enough until the writing is on the wall. What frustrates me about our citizenry is truly how uninformed we are. The average American hears the news but rarely listens. There are too few of us who are detail-oriented or care enough to get the straight facts. I can't tell you how many times these past months I have spoken with educated people who told me they were worried about Obama because he's a Muslim. Troubling on so many levels. If a large number of Americans can't get their facts straight when it comes to electing their next president, then I presume its going to take a while before we're all on the same page about falling home prices. On a related note, does anybody know if commercial property will follow the same trajectory as residential property? I am a business owner that is looking to purchase commercial warehouse space when my lease ends in a few years? Its like the Iraq war – at the onset people literally wanted to stone you if you opposed it. But it slowly (too slowly) unraveled, and before we knew it public opinion swayed completely towards the opposite direction.

For the housing crisis, I think the general public is only beginning to wake up. Its going to take a bit more time for the average American to realize just how serious this shit storm will become. Throw all the Credit Suisse graphs or Case Shiller data that you want at ‘em, its never enough until the writing is on the wall.

What frustrates me about our citizenry is truly how uninformed we are. The average American hears the news but rarely listens. There are too few of us who are detail-oriented or care enough to get the straight facts. I can’t tell you how many times these past months I have spoken with educated people who told me they were worried about Obama because he’s a Muslim. Troubling on so many levels.

If a large number of Americans can’t get their facts straight when it comes to electing their next president, then I presume its going to take a while before we’re all on the same page about falling home prices.

On a related note, does anybody know if commercial property will follow the same trajectory as residential property? I am a business owner that is looking to purchase commercial warehouse space when my lease ends in a few years?

]]> By: sanmarino http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/comment-page-1/#comment-1982 sanmarino Wed, 30 Apr 2008 00:20:45 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/#comment-1982 Phantom600rr, I don't know what type of loans most folks used within San Marino, but I do know the buyers have been put down a lot as down payment, sometimes, as high as 75%. This couple who are buying a 2 mil house in San Marino was only going to borrow 500K, which is well within the limit of the "new" confirming limit of 729,000. Because of the #1 school district, San Marino immunes to the housing crisis you have been hearing everywhere else: we are still seeing multiple offers on the houses well above 1.6 mil. Phantom600rr,
I don’t know what type of loans most folks used within San Marino, but I do know the buyers have been put down a lot as down payment, sometimes, as high as 75%. This couple who are buying a 2 mil house in San Marino was only going to borrow 500K, which is well within the limit of the “new” confirming limit of 729,000. Because of the #1 school district, San Marino immunes to the housing crisis you have been hearing everywhere else: we are still seeing multiple offers on the houses well above 1.6 mil.

]]> By: Sean http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/comment-page-1/#comment-1970 Sean Tue, 29 Apr 2008 03:29:10 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/#comment-1970 "They’re not too concern about the price of the house because they have three small kids and they plan to stay put for at least 18 years." One would think having a family with 3 kids would make you more cautious. Although they may plan to stay for 18 years no one can be certain of their job or other life events that may come up. In which case they should always be prudent in your purchases, not find value relative to yesterday. “They’re not too concern about the price of the house because they have three small kids and they plan to stay put for at least 18 years.”

One would think having a family with 3 kids would make you more cautious. Although they may plan to stay for 18 years no one can be certain of their job or other life events that may come up. In which case they should always be prudent in your purchases, not find value relative to yesterday.

]]> By: sgv http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/comment-page-1/#comment-1969 sgv Tue, 29 Apr 2008 01:41:55 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/#comment-1969 mm hmm. Here in San Marino and N San Gabriel there seems to be more reported break-ins...during the day when the folks are home, too. One elderly lady in San Marino was recently approached by someone saying his dog got in to her back yard, so she let him in to get the dog...then he tied her up and robbed her. San Gabriel police sent notices that men were knocking on doors and pushing their way in...Also heard of a recent open house in Pasadena that got hit (went thru upstairs drawers and such, took jewelery). Not sure though if it is an increase, or just more aware lately... mm hmm. Here in San Marino and N San Gabriel there seems to be more reported break-ins…during the day when the folks are home, too. One elderly lady in San Marino was recently approached by someone saying his dog got in to her back yard, so she let him in to get the dog…then he tied her up and robbed her. San Gabriel police sent notices that men were knocking on doors and pushing their way in…Also heard of a recent open house in Pasadena that got hit (went thru upstairs drawers and such, took jewelery). Not sure though if it is an increase, or just more aware lately…

]]> By: george8 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/comment-page-1/#comment-1968 george8 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 23:06:01 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/04/28/say-what/#comment-1968 Smart and right thing to do. If you are not trapped in the home ownership or have not made tons of free home equity from the 2002-2006 run up, it is a no brainer to rent in a "good school" district instead of buying now. You can rent a 2000 sf 3/2/2 at $2500/month while the listings still go for over $1 m. The market is crashing back to "fundamentals". Be patient. Smart and right thing to do.

If you are not trapped in the home ownership or have not made tons of free home equity from the 2002-2006 run up, it is a no brainer to rent in a “good school” district instead of buying now. You can rent a 2000 sf 3/2/2 at $2500/month while the listings still go for over $1 m.

The market is crashing back to “fundamentals”. Be patient.

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