The following property is profiled by the request of one of our readers. It seems like many people are attracted to these PUD/townhomes. If you’re not into yard maintenance, driveways or require large lots to entertain with, then I suppose this is the perfect property for you!

901 Holly Ave.
Arcadia, CA 91007

Price: $888,000 ($334/sf)

• Beds: 3
• Baths: 3.75
• Sq. Ft.: 2,660
• Lot Size: 10,408 Sq. Ft.
• Property Type: Attached, PUD

Excellent location, walk to Arcadia Golf Course and Park, custom built PUD, like new condition, many upgrades and features…

I can’t argue about the location of this PUD. It’s a stone’s throw away from the golf course, Santa Anita Race Track, Arboretum and Westfield Shopping Mall. In fact, this is probably one of the closest properties to all 4 attractions!

Exit, make a left and you’re on Huntington Dr. Can someone tell me whether this is a high traffic intersection?

As far as valuation goes, my first comment would be that PUDs like this one used to go for ~$400k+ in early 2000. Although I know much has changed since then, it doesn’t change the fact that this class of property was built to be more affordable than single family homes and still generate a sizable profit for developers.

Today’s valuation will be based on 2 properties located fairly close to this one or at least within proximity to all the same attractions.

453 Fairview Ave #D.
Arcadia, CA 91007
Currently listing for $669,000 ($284/sf)

- 3 bed, 3 bath and 2,356sf

815 W Duarte Rd.
Arcadia, CA 91007
Sold on 7/31/08 for $680,000 ($230/sf)

- 6(?) beds, 3 baths and 2,962sf

So just based on these 2 comps, $334/sf for today’s PUD is asking too much. If this was a small detached home on a 7,000sf lot then maybe there would be a case for the $888,000 asking price.

Since this property is new(er) and appears to be well maintained, here’s how I would value it:

$260sf – $691,600
$270sf – $718,200
$280sf – $744,800

Stray a little farther West on Huntington Dr. and you will start to see PUDs currently listing for around $680,000 – $750,000. That is far below the today’s “lucky” $888,000 asking price.

1061 Fallen Leaf Rd.
Arcadia, CA 91006

Price: $4,998,000 ($643/sf)

• Beds: 7
• Baths: 7.25
• Sq. Ft.: 7,769 (8,000sf+ incl. guest house)
• Lot size: 1.05 Acres

There’s not much to say about this property. The home is big, the lot is huge and the price… just under $5,000,000.

With 1 acre of land to work with, there’s no chance this home can be overbuilt like the hundreds of McMansions in Arcadia.

Of course, high-end homes like these are not immune to price declines:

Listing history
Jun 27, 2008 $5,488,000
Jul 29, 2008 $4,998,000

That’s a $500,000 (9%) price reduction in 30 days. Even at this price point, the seller is not looking for a knife catch. Rather, he needs a filthy millionaire to come by who just has to live in Arcadia (for whatever reason).

Valuation based on last sales price:

Purchased in 1996 for $1,750,000.

After 12 years of ownership:

4%    $2,801,806    ($361/sf)
5%    $3,142,749    ($405/sf)
6%    $3,521,344    ($453/sf)
7%    $3,941,335    ($507/sf)
8%    $4,406,798    ($567/sf)

If you’re wealthy enough to buy this home, will another $400-600k price drop concern you?

1535 Loganrita Ave.
Arcadia, CA 91006

Price: $700,000 ($393/sf)

• Beds: 3
• Baths: 2
• Sq. Ft.: 1,779
• Lot Size: 0.31 Acres

This is a new listing so no pictures have been posted yet. Fortunately, we won’t need photos to see how this story will unfold. The property is East of 10th Ave. and borderline Monrovia. In fact, it is about 5 big blocks away from the gang shootings earlier this year.

Although I love some parts of Monrovia, Old Town for instance, but the locals on this blog will know how rough some areas can get.

Fortunately for this seller, they purchased the property back in 2004 for $500,000. Applying the standard appreciation table will justify the price:

1995 price: $248,000
2004 price: $500,000

After 9 years of ownership…

5%    $384,729    ($216/sf)
6%    $418,991    ($236/sf)
7%    $455,938    ($256/sf)
8%    $495,753    ($279/sf)

4 years later and the seller wants $700,000 for the same home. There is no mention of upgrades, remodeling or even proper landscaping. Maybe the fruit trees are worth a bundle?

From the description:

What the Owner Loves: The yard is incredible – 3 avocado trees, 3 orange trees, lemon, lime, grapefruit and apple trees. A great house for people with children and/or pets. A separate concrete patio with a grapevine trellis. Corner lot, plenty of space.

Since appreciate is dead for a few years and real estate is, believe or not, depreciating, I’d peg this home at $300/sf – Giving us a value of $533,700.

One last thing. This is a FSBO listing so the seller probably knows $700,000 is just a wishing price. They will most likely find a knife catcher around $650k.

315 N. Oxford Dr.
Arcadia, CA 91007

Price: $980,000 ($463/sf)

• Beds: 2
• Baths: 2
• Sq. Ft.: 2,117
• Lot Size: 14,680sf

Today’s property is a short-sale listing for $120,000 more than its 2006 purchase of $860,000. I’m certain that the buyer went through the following thought process:

1. Purchase this fixer-upper with 100% financing.
2. Borrow more money for extensive remodeling and upgrades.
3. Re-sale the home for $1,300,000+
4. Profit!!

But in the absence of double digit housing appreciation, this deal has horribly gone sour and now the owner is stuck with a $1,000,000 fixer-upper. What a shame too because this section of Peacock Village is very nice and beautiful.

Listing description:

2 BED 1 BATH 1 STORY HOME WITH LARGE FIREPLACE IN FAMILY ROOM. NEWLY PAINTED THROUGHOUT. SHOWS WELL BUT NEEDS SOME TLC. SHORT SALE SUBJECT TO LENDER APPROVAL. ALL OFFERS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED WITH PROOF OF FUNDS LETTER, PRE APPROVAL AND FICO SCORES.

Last month I profiled a nearby home: Uninformed on Oxford. In that post I valued the property at $347/sf. Since this is a fixer-upper, let’s take a look at the valuation range:

$310sf -$656,270
$320sf -$677,440
$350sf -$740,950

Currently listing for $980,000 ($463/sf)

Take a look at the above photo… Would you spend nearly $1,000,000 for this home?

For a while now I have estimated that Arcadia home prices will drop down to $250/sf for low-end condos, $300-350/sf for average single family homes and $400/sf in the most desirable neighborhoods. Of course, there are factors such at views, large lots, gated communities and property age that will command a premium beyond $400/sf.

Let’s take a look at 2 properties today that have recently sold. They are great examples of where prices are heading:

725 Tiffany Terrace
Arcadia, CA 91006

Sold For: $930,000 ($334/sf)

• Beds: 4
• Baths: 3
• Sqft: 2,777
• Year Built: 1985

We profiled this property back in February when AHB was just getting started. At the time, its DOM (days on market) was 101 and listed as a shortsale.

Sales History
Oct 18, 1996 $470,000
June 5, 2007 $1,038,000
June 6, 2008 $930,000

Listing History
Oct 28, 2007 $1,138,000
Nov 14, 2007 $1,080,000
Dec 18, 2997 $998,000

At $930,000, this home sold for $208,000 lower than the initial listing price of $1,138,000. There is even a possibility that the property never sold and was just taken back by the bank. What do you think?

The seller had put a  $109,500 down payment on this home and lost the entire thing. How many people can stomach that kind of loss?

So $334/sf to live borderline Monrovia is still pretty high but this property’s history will drag down its neighborhood like a dead weight.

737 Sharon Rd.
Arcadia, CA 91007

Sold For: $1,160,000 ($291/sf)

• Beds: 4
• Baths: 4
• Sqft: 3,990
• Built in 1991

This is a large home located in an Ok area; right off Baldwin Ave. and 3 blocks South of the Pavilions and 99 Ranch plazas. One of the great phenomenons during the housing bubble was large homes selling for more dollars per square feet than comparable smaller properties. In a normal market, more square footage should yield a lower dollars/sf asking price.

We have seen many large properties asking (and selling!) for over $400/sf. Today, at $291/sf, this home will no doubt run chills down someone’s spine.

Sales History

Feb 10, 1993 $600,000 ($150/sf)
May 28, 1996 $542,500 ($135/sf)
Jan 14, 2000 $570,000 ($143/sf)
Jul 08, 2008 $1,160,00 ($291/sf)

I won’t kid you though. Plenty of single family homes in Arcadia have sold for over $400/sf in the last 3 months. It will take 2-3 years for prices to fall within fundemental values and it will be interesting to see how low the outlying areas near Monrovia and El Monte will fall.