Comments on: Crisis on the Homefront http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/09/03/crisis-on-the-homefront/ Tracking the Arcadia and San Gabriel Valley Housing Market Sat, 13 Mar 2010 20:20:44 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Generationsei http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/09/03/crisis-on-the-homefront/comment-page-1/#comment-237853 Generationsei Fri, 31 Jul 2009 10:13:54 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/?p=680#comment-237853 Don’t be fooled into everything fixing itself in a year. It took about 8 years to create this mess, it won’t heal in 1-2 years. There will be a few upward trends (bounce) but the general direction is still down. Don’t be fooled into everything fixing itself in a year. It took about 8 years to create this mess, it won’t heal in 1-2 years. There will be a few upward trends (bounce) but the general direction is still down.

]]> By: Orlando http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/09/03/crisis-on-the-homefront/comment-page-1/#comment-159534 Orlando Wed, 11 Feb 2009 12:36:34 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/?p=680#comment-159534 You ARE NOT ALONE: laid-off.com posted the following yesterday. Major Layoff Headlines :( Panasonic Closing 27 Plants -15,000 Caterpillar Layoff Tally -22,000 Boeing -10,000 Pfizer Update: Closing 5 Plants -26,000 Circuit City Closing Down -30,000 Alcoa -13,500 GE Capital Cutting up to 11,000 Bank of America to cut up to 35,000 Rio Tinto Mining Cutting 14,000 Worldwide Office Depot Will Close 112 Stores KB Toys Bankrupt Closing All 460 Stores Citigroup will have to cut 75,000 by 2009 Financial Layoff Tally 290,000 You ARE NOT ALONE: laid-off.com posted the following yesterday.

Major Layoff Headlines :(

Panasonic Closing 27 Plants -15,000

Caterpillar Layoff Tally -22,000

Boeing -10,000

Pfizer Update: Closing 5 Plants -26,000

Circuit City Closing Down -30,000

Alcoa -13,500

GE Capital Cutting up to 11,000

Bank of America to cut up to 35,000

Rio Tinto Mining Cutting 14,000 Worldwide

Office Depot Will Close 112 Stores

KB Toys Bankrupt Closing All 460 Stores

Citigroup will have to cut 75,000 by 2009

Financial Layoff Tally 290,000

]]> By: Sean http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/09/03/crisis-on-the-homefront/comment-page-1/#comment-83553 Sean Sun, 14 Dec 2008 20:46:10 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/?p=680#comment-83553 Sunshine is provided by the Sun, not Obama and his team. I know you are using the sun as an metaphor, but in reality it's just wishful thinking. We are about 60-70% into a bear market that started in 2000. The housing market likely has 2-5 more years of pain to flush out the bad loans and a lot of good loans that will go into default as unemployment rises. Don't be fooled into everything fixing itself in a year. It took about 8 years to create this mess, it won't heal in 1-2 years. There will be a few upward trends (bounce) but the general direction is still down. We are going back to the basics, as in no more fancy loans to put people who can't afford a home into one. Thus, prices will need to reflect what a buyer can actually afford. If the average home buyer in SoCal makes around 100K as a family income, then they can afford a home that is 3X-4X the income, thus 300K-400K. And they will need to put down about 100K. Right now a nice home is still 500-800K. Do the math, home values are WAY out of line, and with the recession incomes are falling. Don't be fooled into buying overpriced homes. Lower HOME prices are a good thing, unless you were one of the people who bought during the bubble. Lower home values give you lower tax, lower payments, and more money to spend on other things. The only people who really benefit from higher home values are people who use homes to make money (investors) and realtors who get a bigger commission. But the average 30 year home buyers is HURT by higher prices. As everyone can clearly see from the current situation. These high home prices are causing A LOT of pain! Will it all end early next year? Not a chance. Sunshine is provided by the Sun, not Obama and his team. I know you are using the sun as an metaphor, but in reality it’s just wishful thinking. We are about 60-70% into a bear market that started in 2000. The housing market likely has 2-5 more years of pain to flush out the bad loans and a lot of good loans that will go into default as unemployment rises.

Don’t be fooled into everything fixing itself in a year. It took about 8 years to create this mess, it won’t heal in 1-2 years. There will be a few upward trends (bounce) but the general direction is still down.

We are going back to the basics, as in no more fancy loans to put people who can’t afford a home into one. Thus, prices will need to reflect what a buyer can actually afford. If the average home buyer in SoCal makes around 100K as a family income, then they can afford a home that is 3X-4X the income, thus 300K-400K. And they will need to put down about 100K. Right now a nice home is still 500-800K. Do the math, home values are WAY out of line, and with the recession incomes are falling.

Don’t be fooled into buying overpriced homes. Lower HOME prices are a good thing, unless you were one of the people who bought during the bubble. Lower home values give you lower tax, lower payments, and more money to spend on other things. The only people who really benefit from higher home values are people who use homes to make money (investors) and realtors who get a bigger commission. But the average 30 year home buyers is HURT by higher prices. As everyone can clearly see from the current situation. These high home prices are causing A LOT of pain! Will it all end early next year? Not a chance.

]]> By: Arcadian Sideliner http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/09/03/crisis-on-the-homefront/comment-page-1/#comment-81096 Arcadian Sideliner Fri, 12 Dec 2008 06:25:48 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/?p=680#comment-81096 The banks are still holding hundreds of REOs and nearly half the sales volume in several cities are foreclosure sales. I believe Florida has 5, FIVE!!, years worth of condo inventory on the market. "Hot spots" like Irvine is a complete waste. LA is still #2 in terms of un-affordability (next to SF). Oh yea, just one more thing: We've gone through only 50% of the garbage loans. Residential real estate, at least for most of California, will be dead until Wall Street sorts out its mess. Seeing as how the Big 3 are going down and our recession is just getting worse, we have 2-3 years to go. The banks are still holding hundreds of REOs and nearly half the sales volume in several cities are foreclosure sales. I believe Florida has 5, FIVE!!, years worth of condo inventory on the market. “Hot spots” like Irvine is a complete waste. LA is still #2 in terms of un-affordability (next to SF).

Oh yea, just one more thing: We’ve gone through only 50% of the garbage loans. Residential real estate, at least for most of California, will be dead until Wall Street sorts out its mess. Seeing as how the Big 3 are going down and our recession is just getting worse, we have 2-3 years to go.

]]> By: busby seo http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/09/03/crisis-on-the-homefront/comment-page-1/#comment-81083 busby seo Fri, 12 Dec 2008 06:11:27 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/?p=680#comment-81083 I think the situation is getting under control since Obama elected and his new team will bring a bit light of sunshine. My forecast, the housing crisis will be over by the first quarter of 2009. I think the situation is getting under control since Obama elected and his new team will bring a bit light of sunshine. My forecast, the housing crisis will be over by the first quarter of 2009.

]]> By: garage packages http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/09/03/crisis-on-the-homefront/comment-page-1/#comment-35798 garage packages Thu, 23 Oct 2008 22:02:23 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/?p=680#comment-35798 Sad news for me because I'm enjoying this site already. I wish you all the best. Sad news for me because I’m enjoying this site already. I wish you all the best.

]]> By: Altesino http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/09/03/crisis-on-the-homefront/comment-page-1/#comment-30792 Altesino Thu, 16 Oct 2008 21:51:20 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/?p=680#comment-30792 I assume things haven't improved in the past month. Best of luck its tough on all of us. I assume things haven’t improved in the past month. Best of luck its tough on all of us.

]]> By: Brampton Realtor http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/09/03/crisis-on-the-homefront/comment-page-1/#comment-25852 Brampton Realtor Tue, 07 Oct 2008 02:35:21 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/?p=680#comment-25852 I hope you have something else lined up. Perhaps a carrer change planned? In Canada even with the housing slow down the trades are still doing well. I hope you have something else lined up.
Perhaps a carrer change planned?
In Canada even with the housing slow down the trades are still doing well.

]]> By: Tracker http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/09/03/crisis-on-the-homefront/comment-page-1/#comment-13069 Tracker Thu, 11 Sep 2008 21:16:04 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/?p=680#comment-13069 Sorry to hear the news Arcadian! Will Saved By Grace be on hiatus as well? You guys made a great team. Sorry to hear the news Arcadian! Will Saved By Grace be on hiatus as well? You guys made a great team.

]]> By: rockyroad http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/2008/09/03/crisis-on-the-homefront/comment-page-1/#comment-13021 rockyroad Thu, 11 Sep 2008 19:14:35 +0000 http://www.arcadiahousingblog.com/?p=680#comment-13021 it's one of the few blogs i read regularly, hope all works out for you and hope to read the occasional entries if you have time. would be interesting to know how the higher ups at your firm do (did they take on too much personal debt or are they floating off with nice parachutes?) do you think you'll be staying in the RE field or working in another field? it’s one of the few blogs i read regularly, hope all works out for you and hope to read the occasional entries if you have time. would be interesting to know how the higher ups at your firm do (did they take on too much personal debt or are they floating off with nice parachutes?) do you think you’ll be staying in the RE field or working in another field?

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