Arcadia Housing Blog

1235 Magnolia Ct.
Arcadia, CA 91006

Price: $1,800,000 ($418/sf)

• Beds: 5
• Baths: 4.5
• Sq. Ft.: 4,304
• Lot Size: 10,729 Sq. Ft.

This McMansion is part of a new 5-home cul-de-sac located East of 10th Ave. and near the Monrovia borderline:

It is so far from the other McMansion neighborhoods that these 4,000+ square foot properties look completely out of place:

During the height of the bubble, flippers and developers realized that anything they put on the market would sell. Everything from raw land, fixer-uppers to overbuilt McMansions could all be sold at a premium. Since buyers were not required to make a 20% down payment, getting into a new home was easy and effortless.

Since the listing shows this property as a “new construction” built in 2007, I suspect that it’s been on the market for some time now. Developers typically try to sell the home before construction is completed to reduce carrying costs (e.g. taxes, interest and maintenance).

If I recall, a couple of large McMansions near Longden and Baldwin Ave. sold for around $1.8MM earlier this year. If that’s the case, would you spend the same amount to live near Monrovia and a much older neighborhood?

Sales Comps:
370 Walnut Ave. – $1,789,000

417 W. Norman Ave. – $1,480,000

Below are the July 2008 home sales figures for Arcadia and a couple surrounding cities.

**Edit: Added Sierra Madre**

SIERRA MADRE 8 $800,000 -17.95%

Redfin has an excellent feature called “Inventory and Housing Trends.” The data is city-specific and gives us a good idea of where home prices are heading. The data below is specifically for Arcadia, California and basically supports what we’ve been stating all along. Arcadia home prices are under heavy pressure from increasing inventory, rising foreclosures and low-affordability.

Inventory has essentially more than doubled since April of 2007. This is what happens when people are forced to sell their homes due to exploding ARMs, weak job market and just simply being underwater on their mortgage.

I suspect that we will break through the $350/sf mark for single family homes by the end of 2008.

All those PUDs, condos and condo conversions will be hurting next year once the median is comfortably below $300/sf.

If these charts weren’t dismal enough, here’s my chart tracking the increasing number of Arcadia foreclosures over the last 6 months.

These are basically the first Arcadia-specific charts I’ve posted since arcadiahousingblog.com was launched. We have dozens of charts and graphs for Los Angeles county but historical city-specific data is always difficult to come by. Now that we have them, I hope all you readers will find the information useful!

1030 Heritage Oaks Dr.
Arcadia, CA 91006

Price: $1,098,000 ($336/sf)

• Beds: 6
• Baths: 4
• Sq. Ft.: 3,265
• Lot Size: 10,220 Sq. Ft.
• Year Built: 1976

At first this property seemed like a decent deal assuming you can knock $100-200k off the asking price. A 6 bedroom SFR for $336/sf? Seems like a steal in this bubble market. Then I started browsing through the photos. Either the owner who purchased it 8 years ago had the fashion taste of 2 decades before or they never bothered to update the interior:

So let’s knock another $100k off for upgrades and renovations. $800,000 is starting to sound like a great deal on this 3,265sf home ($245/sf). But… and there’s always a ‘but’ isn’t there? One look at the aerial map and I’d be surprised if anyone would even consider this home for $700k.

What a great view of San Gabriel Valley’s finest freeway!

Applying our standard appreciation table doesn’t help the evaluation of this property. I guess sitting next to the congested 210 freeway isn’t a highly desired amenity.

Last purchased in 2000 for $489,000.

After 8 years of ownership:

4%    $669,230    ($205/sf)
5%    $722,476    ($221/sf)
6%    $779,392    ($239/sf)
7%    $840,193    ($257/sf)

123 Eldorado St #A
Arcadia, CA 91006

Price: $589,000 ($405/sf)

• Beds: 3
• Baths: 2.5
• Sq. Ft.: 1,453
• Property Type Attached, Townhouse

OWNER PURCHASED THIS PROPERTY AT YEAR 2005 FOR $575,000 AND SPENT $20,000 TO UPGRADE KITCHEN COUNTER TOP, CABINETS, HARDWOOD/TILE FLOOR AND GARAGE FLOOR. THIS IS PRICED TO SELL.

Here’s a seller hoping to get out of his 2005 purchase with a minimal loss. Assuming the $20,000 spent on upgrades is true, here’s where he currently stands:

2005 Purchase – $575,000
ADD Upgrades- $20,000
ADD Agent Fees – $35,340
MINUS Sales Price – $589,000

Total loss = $41,340

Unfortunately, I do not think $589,000 is “priced to sell”. Other PUDs in the area are similary listed at $405/sf but actual sales are closing between $300 to $360/sf. At 1,453sf, this property should fall within the following price range:

$435,900 $300/sf
$479,490 $330/sf
$523,080 $360/sf

A neighboring PUD, newer and bigger, is currently listed at $404/sf and has been sitting unsold for 222 days. Will this seller suffer the same fate?

The following property is profiled by the request of one of our readers. It seems like many people are attracted to these PUD/townhomes. If you’re not into yard maintenance, driveways or require large lots to entertain with, then I suppose this is the perfect property for you!

901 Holly Ave.
Arcadia, CA 91007

Price: $888,000 ($334/sf)

• Beds: 3
• Baths: 3.75
• Sq. Ft.: 2,660
• Lot Size: 10,408 Sq. Ft.
• Property Type: Attached, PUD

Excellent location, walk to Arcadia Golf Course and Park, custom built PUD, like new condition, many upgrades and features…

I can’t argue about the location of this PUD. It’s a stone’s throw away from the golf course, Santa Anita Race Track, Arboretum and Westfield Shopping Mall. In fact, this is probably one of the closest properties to all 4 attractions!

Exit, make a left and you’re on Huntington Dr. Can someone tell me whether this is a high traffic intersection?

As far as valuation goes, my first comment would be that PUDs like this one used to go for ~$400k+ in early 2000. Although I know much has changed since then, it doesn’t change the fact that this class of property was built to be more affordable than single family homes and still generate a sizable profit for developers.

Today’s valuation will be based on 2 properties located fairly close to this one or at least within proximity to all the same attractions.

453 Fairview Ave #D.
Arcadia, CA 91007
Currently listing for $669,000 ($284/sf)

- 3 bed, 3 bath and 2,356sf

815 W Duarte Rd.
Arcadia, CA 91007
Sold on 7/31/08 for $680,000 ($230/sf)

- 6(?) beds, 3 baths and 2,962sf

So just based on these 2 comps, $334/sf for today’s PUD is asking too much. If this was a small detached home on a 7,000sf lot then maybe there would be a case for the $888,000 asking price.

Since this property is new(er) and appears to be well maintained, here’s how I would value it:

$260sf – $691,600
$270sf – $718,200
$280sf – $744,800

Stray a little farther West on Huntington Dr. and you will start to see PUDs currently listing for around $680,000 – $750,000. That is far below the today’s “lucky” $888,000 asking price.

1061 Fallen Leaf Rd.
Arcadia, CA 91006

Price: $4,998,000 ($643/sf)

• Beds: 7
• Baths: 7.25
• Sq. Ft.: 7,769 (8,000sf+ incl. guest house)
• Lot size: 1.05 Acres

There’s not much to say about this property. The home is big, the lot is huge and the price… just under $5,000,000.

With 1 acre of land to work with, there’s no chance this home can be overbuilt like the hundreds of McMansions in Arcadia.

Of course, high-end homes like these are not immune to price declines:

Listing history
Jun 27, 2008 $5,488,000
Jul 29, 2008 $4,998,000

That’s a $500,000 (9%) price reduction in 30 days. Even at this price point, the seller is not looking for a knife catch. Rather, he needs a filthy millionaire to come by who just has to live in Arcadia (for whatever reason).

Valuation based on last sales price:

Purchased in 1996 for $1,750,000.

After 12 years of ownership:

4%    $2,801,806    ($361/sf)
5%    $3,142,749    ($405/sf)
6%    $3,521,344    ($453/sf)
7%    $3,941,335    ($507/sf)
8%    $4,406,798    ($567/sf)

If you’re wealthy enough to buy this home, will another $400-600k price drop concern you?