Flipping Woes on Camino

405 E. Camino Real Ave

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Asking Price $548,000 ::: Sq-ft 812
Purchased Price $505,000 ::: Lot Size 5,040
Purchased Date 06/08/2007 ::: Beds 2
Days on Redfin 110 ::: Baths 1
$/Sq-ft $675 ::: Year Built 1947
20% Downpayment $109,600 ::: Area Santa Anita
Income Required $137,000/yr ::: Type SFR
Est. Payment* $2,771/month ::: MLS# A07153216

*Estimated monthly payment assume 20% down, 30-yr fixed @ 6.50%

This seller has an astounding asking price of $675/sq-ft for this teeny, tiny 812 square foot house on a postage stamp sized lot. That’s about the size of two two-car garages, if not smaller. It’s been on the market for 110 days and counting. How many more days and price reductions would it take to move this property?

Past Sales History

  • June 8, 2007 $505,000
  • Sept 19, 2005 $550,000
  • June 16, 2005 $418,181
  • Dec 30, 1996 $163,000
  • July 16, 1996 $114,885

Recent Listing History

  • Oct 20, 2007 $578,000
  • Dec 17, 2007 $568,000
  • Jan 30, 2008 $548,000

This property was purchased in June of 2007 for $505,000. After sitting on the home for 4 months, the owner listed it for $578,000. Notice that nothing was done to the property as the kitchen, restroom and landscape renovations were done in 2005. Maybe the owner thinks his “NEW GARAGE DOOR” is worth the $73,000 premium, but the market didn’t. The original listing price was followed by 2 price reductions totaling $30,000.

There was an open house at this listing last Sunday, but I didn’t go in. I didn’t see any cars in front of the driveway so I presumed there were no potential buyers inside at the time. Perhaps I should have went in and asked the realtor why he thinks this house should command $548k or make some ultra low-ball offers just for kicks. I wonder what he would say.

This house is just a few doors down from the $900,000 Dirt we profiled last week. I went by to check out that property in person and took some better pictures. Look for an update on that property tomorrow.

Flip ‘n Flop

725 Tiffany Terrace

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Asking Price $998,000 ::: Sq-ft 2,777
Purchased Price $1,038,000 ::: Lot Size 8,625
Purchased Date 06/05/2007 ::: Beds 4
Days on Redfin 101 ::: Baths 3
$/Sq-ft $359 ::: Year Built 1985
20% Downpayment $199,600 ::: Area Near Monrovia
Income Required $249,500/yr ::: Type SFR
Est. Payment* $5,046/month ::: MLS# A07156761

*Estimated monthly payment assume 20% down, 30-yr fixed @ 6.50%

Here we have another flip gone wrong. It was very tempting for speculators to take part in the bubble when housing prices were ballooning at the alarming rate of yesteryears. This flipper was late to the game and have since lost a chunk of their downpayment and counting. How much will you think they’ll lose when it’s all said and done?

Sales History
Oct 18, 1996 $470,000
June 5, 2007 $1,038,000

  • 1st Mortgage $778,500
  • 2nd Mortgage $150,000
  • Downpayment $109,500

Recent Listing History
Oct 28, 2007 $1,138,000
Nov 14, 2007 $1,080,000
Dec 18, 2007 $998,000

This flipper ignored signs of the struggling market and bought this flip with just over a hundred grand downpayment last summer. Delusional with promises of never ending double-digit growth, they put this house on the market with new flooring after just 4 months with a $100,000 premium. Just 2 weeks after that, news of the troubled market must have finally scared them and the asking price dropped by $58,000 in hopes of breaking even after fees. By December, it’s still on the market so they proceed to reduce it by another $82,000 to push for a sale.

It’s been 6 weeks since the last price reduction and there’s no end in sight. This is now listed as a short sale subject to final lender approval. My crystal ball says there’s another price reduction coming up soon if they really want to move this property. In this case, the specuvestor gets burned because they put down money and the bank will also lose because the property is no longer worth what they paid just a few months ago.

If you made almost a quarter of million dollars a year, would you plunk down $200k on a $1million dollar property off 8th street near Monrovia? If you had to pay over $5,000 per month in mortgage payments (excluding property taxes, insurance, maintenance etc), is this the kind of house you picture yourself living in? Yeah, I didn’t think so either.

The Future of Real Estate Agents

Do you take pride in your work? Dan & Joy Blanding of REMAX Realty obviously don’t because their downed RE sign has been in front of this house for at least 4+ months. It was removed temporarily and then resurfaced in the exact same position about a week later.

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Do you make people angry? Do you have unsatisfied customers? Fazian Bakali (also of REMAX) apparently pissed off someone enough to warrant vandalism of his RE sign. This piece of junk has been in front of 622 Longden Avenue for months.

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Real estate agents are people who make a living off 3% commission by representing a buyer or seller. In exchange for their paycheck, agents do market research, show homes to clients and drafts offers. There isn’t much skill involved in being an agent and that’s probably why everyone and their brother has a real estate license these days.

This profession has been around for a long time mainly because of access to information. Before the internet, it was fairly cumbersome and difficult for the general public to find listings if you did not belong to a group such as the NAR or CAR because they essentially owned the listings database. That remained true until recent years when the internet granted public access to many listings.

When I sit down to write a post, I almost always start by looking at Redfin, Zillow, ZipRealty or any of the free listing websites. They provide me access to current listings, asking price, square footage, number of bed/bathrooms, colored photos, previous sales history and a host of other valuable information. With that, any buyer can scout and screen homes as well as do market research on comparable sales in the desired neighborhood. And now with companies like Redfin and Help-U-Sell, you can even use their agents to attend open houses and draft offers for a mere 1% fee.

Will Redfin and ZipRealty do to RE agents what Expedia and Travelocity did to travel agents? I don’t think the profession will get wiped out because there is some value in qualified, respectable agents. Let’s face it, buying or selling a home is a very emotional and stressful time and it’s nice to have a representative during negotiations. In my opinion, there is a need for good real estate agents, but they should work for a flat fee instead of a percentage commission.
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A 3% commission on a $600k home is $18,000. Looking up a few homes and drafting an offer doesn’t sound like $18,000 worth of work to me. Also, it doesn’t require anymore work to find and buy a $300k home than it does a $600k home – so why should I pay $18,000 for the realtor to do the same work as he/she would have done for $9,000 on a $300k house? That doesn’t make a bit of sense.

If the realtors work for a flat fee, they would have more incentive to actually work in the buyer’s interest instead of always trying to push a sale in order to get paid. The current system is dysfunctional because there is a direct conflict of interest. The higher the sales price, the more the agent get paid so how can they possibly work in the buyer’s best interest? However, if the agent gets paid a flat fee based on customer satisfaction, there would be no conflict of interest. A good, valuable agent will have repeat customers and benefit from customer referrals while a bad realtor will simply get screen out of the industry altogether.

Real estate agents are not certified financial advisors, analysts or economist and do not have the qualifications to give financial advice any more than I do. Customers need to understand that just because they’re real estate agents doesn’t mean they know what they’re talking about. Most of them are under-qualified people looking to make a quick buck.

I don’t like to make generalizations, but you must question the validity and accuracy of their advice when their income directly depends on you making a transaction. You must question their motives. I wouldn’t take anything a realtor says for more than just a grain of salt. Besides, when was the last time you heard a realtor say it wasn’t a good time to buy a home?

Not So Peachy Anymore

***Update*** This listing was modified today to include a slightly lower asking price of $679,000. You think the realtor/seller saw our profile and decided they need to do something to move this property? The direction is correct; the magnitude is not sufficient.

517 Peachtree Lane

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Asking Price $699,900 ::: Sq-ft 1,492
Purchased Price $825,000 ::: Lot Size 8,900
Purchased Date 08/29/2006 ::: Beds 3
Days on Redfin 139 ::: Baths 2
$/Sq-ft $469 ::: Year Built 1965
20% Downpayment $139,980 ::: Area Near Monrovia
Income Required $174,975/yr ::: Type SFR
Est. Payment* $3,539/month ::: MLS# 22099204

*Estimated monthly payment assume 20% down, 30-yr fixed @ 6.50%

This is a case of irrational exuberance and greed.
Let’s take a look at the sales history.

Previous Sale
June 02, 1989 $360,000

Purchased on August 19, 2004 $750,000
Down payment – $0
1st Loan – $600,000
2nd Loan – $150,000

Refinance on August 29, 2006 $825,000
Withdrew $75,000 in cash

These folks bought on 100% financing in 2004 for $750k. It was most likely an option loan that reseted 2 years later, at which time they decided to refinance the property again at the re-appraised value of $825k. In the meantime, they pulled out $75,000 from the ATM on the side of the house and probably bought a new luxury car and a big screen tv. Fast forward to 14 months later, it’s October 2007 and they realized the market was going to hell and they could not afford the payments anymore so they put it on the market.

Initial Listing
October 29, 2007 $729,900

Reduced Price
January 11, 2008 $699,900

I didn’t see two separate loans for the refinance so the owner squatter was somehow able to find a lender to take on the entire $825,000. Even in the heydays of nilly willy no-doc, non-existent underwriting bubble mania, I can’t see a bank stupid enough to make a loan for the entire amount. Perhaps greed got the best of everyone involved who was expecting further unjustified growth of the bubble. Since this was purchased on 100%, it would be considered a short sale and subject to bank approval. If the sellers get their asking price, the bank stands to lose $125,100 or 15%. Even with a price reduction, the listing has been on the market for 139 days.

In the meantime, these “owners” came out winners because they cashed out on $75,000 and walked away with nothing more than a dinged credit score. Assuming the lender is still float, how many more of these bad loans do you think they can absorb before they go under?

Things aren’t looking so peachy anymore.

Inventory and Market Report – 2/2/08

Zip Codes: 91006, 91007market_icon.jpg

Current Market Listings as of February 2nd, 2008
Properties for Sale: 256
Median Listing Price: $749,000

December 2007 Sales Report
Properties Sold: 29
Median Price: $790,000

Foreclosure Updates as of February 2nd, 2008
Properties in Foreclosure: 8
Properties in Pre-Foreclosure: 64

Although many local Realtors continue to claim that Arcadia’s housing market is still strong due to high demand, check out this Redfin link. Based on a rough estimate, about a quarter of the homes have been listed for 90+ days and we have just under 6 months worth of standing inventory. Although I expect these sales numbers to increase as we head towards Spring, I doubt 2008 will see the frenzy buying volume of ’05 and ’06.

Property and foreclosure numbers obtained from ZipRealty and Foreclosure.com. Monthly sales numbers obtained from DataQuick News.

Who is SavedByGrace?

Since I am the primary author for this blog, I owe it to my readers to disclose (at least in part) my background. First and foremost, privacy is paramount. I will share the following facts about me, but fully intend to remain anonymous mainly for self-preservation and safety concerns.

I have lived in Arcadia and its surrounding cities since 1990 and know the area like the back of my hand. Currently a renter in one of the neighboring cities, I hope to buy in Arcadia when the price and time is right. I carry no credit card debt, save over 50% of my net income every month, have one small consolidated student loan at a low interest rate and a 800+ FICO score. I am female and taken.

As a young, mechanical engineer, I currently work for a Fortune 500 company as a product development engineer in the medical device industry. While my line of work has nothing to do with the financial and/or housing markets, I am intrigued by its trends and movements enough to follow its past, present and future events. Over the past few years I’ve grown increasingly frustrated with the socal housing craze. I’ve chosen to rent, save and invest my savings instead of take part in the bubble because prices were significantly over-valued. I’d be damned if I were to pay over $1million for a 1300 sqft fixer-upper near Monrovia.

Despite my bearish views, I am looking to buy in the future. For the most part, I will be a rent-saver buyer when the time is right, but I will also be looking for killer deals. With the way things are going, I am expecting at least several more years of decline.

Evidently, this is going to be a housing bear’s blog for the foreseeable future, but as with all cycles, that will change as the market turns. My goal is to get information out to as many readers as possible about the state of the housing market so that people can make their own informed choices about buying, selling and/or renting. I have no incentive to promote or condemn any particular view or property as I am completely outside of the RE industry. It hurts me to see people’s lives left in ruins from bad financial decisions and it is my intention to save as many as possible.

SavedByGrace – a roaring housing mama bear.

Weekly News Recap 1/31/08

Every Friday I will provide a short list of news headlines that reflect the current state of our housing market; either locally, statewide or nationally. By looking back at these headlines we can analyze the current state of the market and project where it is heading from here.

Just in case you missed it, SavedByGrace had profiled a home that reflects how delusional people in this market currently are.

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1/24/08 – Housing Slump Starts to Hit Stronger Cities (WSJ)

In California’s Orange County, around a quarter of the listings are either foreclosed properties owned by lenders or homes owned by people trying to do “short sales,” or sell for less than the amount they owe the bank…

1/28/08 – Sales of New Homes Fell by 26% in 2007 (NYT)

1/28/08 – Countrywide CEO gives up $37.5MM payoff (MarketWatch)

1/29/08 – Foreclosures up 75% in 2007 (CNN)

1/30/08 – Federal Reserves lowers federal fund rate by 0.50% – down to 3%

Despite 1.25% in interest rate cuts so far, major stock indexes ended in January with heavy losses. Home sales volume is down and foreclosures are up dramatically compared to last year. Although Bush is pushing for his stimulus plan to get the economy moving, everyone seems to have forgotten that the nation still faces an affordability problem.

We don’t need:

  1. Lower interest rates
  2. More cash from the government

We do need:

  1. Reasonably priced homes

Tracking the Arcadia and San Gabriel Valley Housing Market