No Appreciation in the Hamptons | Arcadia Housing Blog

Another property has joined the $2,000,000+ club. This one is located in the beautiful Santa Anita Oaks area, or “Upper Rancho Estate”. Bordering close to San Marino and South Pasadena, homes in this community will always carry a hefty premium over other similar Arcadia properties.

Of course, there’s nothing normal about these homes either:

3,000+ square foot homes
Up to 1 acre+ lots
Well kept neighborhoods
Privacy!

All in all, perhaps one would feel like they actually lived in the Hamptons… Not.

1050 Hampton Rd.
Arcadia, CA 91006

Asking Price	$2,388,000	:::	Sq-ft	3,649
Purchased Price	$1,100,000	:::	Lot Size	0.76 acres
Purchased Date	1/29/2002	:::	Beds	4
Days on Redfin	2	:::	Baths	3.5
$/Sq-ft	$654	:::	Year Built	1940
20% Downpayment	$477,600	:::	Area	Santa Anita Oaks
Income Required	$597,000	:::	Type	SFR
Est. Payment*	$12,073/month	:::	MLS#	A08087163

*Estimated monthly payment assume 20% down, 30-yr fixed @ 6.50%

Despite being in a desirable community located within a desirable city, this high-end home has a story to share with us. Take a look at its sales history:

Sep 02, 1988 $862,500
Jan 22, 1999 $870,000 (+$7,500)
Jan 29, 2002 $1,100,000 (+230,000)

Because the 1988 owner bought at the height of that era’s housing bubble, it took 11 years for the home to regain its value. This is not a theory or economic model. These are real sales figures that reflect what the opportunity costs is when you buy a home at the wrong time.

Fast forward 20 years later and we have the current owner who is trying to sell the same exact property for $2,388,000; a $1,288,000 premium over his 2002 purchase price. Of course, it looks like some remodeling has occurred:

Updated bar
Entertainment center
Glass wall
Salted pool & spa
“Gourmet kitchen” /w stainless appliances and granite counters
Hardwood floors, new carpetting, cabinets
New wiring and plumbing

There are two things I know about remodeling homes:

It can get very expensive.
It did not cost the owner even close to $1.2MM to update this home.

Do I blame this seller for trying to make a buck? Of course not. It is my experience that 99% of property owners believe their homes to be more desirable than the surrounding neighbors. Apparently, actual sales and listing data reveals that $2MM+ is asking too much.

Recent Sales

$1,825,000
605 Arbolada Dr
Sold on Feb 05, 2008 4 br / 4 ba
3,473 Sq. Ft.

$1,385,000
201 Adams St
Sold on Feb 05, 2008 3 br / 3 ba
3,716 Sq. Ft

Current Listings

$1,235,000
1030 Heritage Oaks Dr 6 bd / 4 ba
3,265 Sq. Ft.

$1,195,000
1030 Don Alvarado St 5 bd / 3 ba
3,015 Sq. Ft.

$1,425,000
79 W Orange Grove Ave 4 bd / 2.75 ba
3,720 Sq. Ft.

$1,295,000
230 Jameson Ct 4 bd / 3.5 ba
3,178 Sq. Ft.

$1,295,000
448 W Grandview Ave 5 bd / 4 ba
3,821 Sq. Ft.

My theoretical offer on this home? I would give it a 5-6% annual appreciation over the last 6 years and maybe buy it for $1.5 – 1.6MM.

Comments (9)

· June 17, 2008 #2833

Bordering closer to Sierra Madre and Pasadena is more like it

You would have to traverse the entire expanse of Pasadena before you even get close to South Pasadena or San Marino, where a home of this size and price would be more justifiable.

TheArcadian · June 17, 2008

You’re right. I meant to say as close to South Pasadena and San Marino as Arcadia could get.

T K Eng · June 17, 2008 #2836

Someone who pays more than $2 mil for this place would probably have to wait another 10 yrs before they get their money back. Since this owner bought before the current bubble, she is probably not in a hurry to sell unless there she took out a big HELOC. Economist Christopher Thornberg, ex UCLA professor and early bubble predictor, said in today’s LA Times that “prices will be down 40% to 50% [from their peak] in Southern California when all is said and done.” I wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of the year you’ll find something comparable to this baby for $1.5 mil or less.

SavedByGrace · June 17, 2008

Chris Thornberg is my hero 🙂

george8 · June 18, 2008

In 2010, this property will sell less than 2002 purchase price of $1,100k which requires $250k+ income to afford once the bubbly excess is squeezed dry.

Cicero · June 18, 2008 #2859

Stop the presses!

Did these people run out of money or energy or both in this remodel? Photo 15 shows a TILE bath counter with a propped up mirror. In a $2M+ home?

Keep those windows closed, you are 500yards from the freeway fumes and particles! For $2M you should hear nothing but birds and babbling brooks.

Again, shame on this clueless realtor for taking a time wasting listing. Realtors are hurting themselves as more and more people will give up trying to sell or looking to buy.

I know I ‘ve given up and come back several times. I don’t have to buy but will when prices are 30-40% less in 3 years. I can wait. Most of these homeowners can not.

TheArcadian · June 18, 2008

Cicero,

I will be waiting with you. In fact, every day I put off buying is an extra couple hundred dollars in my pocket. Even the big home builders have admitted that the usual Summer sell-off is a bust for 2008.

T K Eng · June 18, 2008 #2865

Question for the Arcadian, with surging gas prices, the media has reported that people seem to be giving up on long distance commutes and moving closer to where the jobs are-namely, near downtown. Do you think “the gas price effect” will be strong enough to keep Arcadia/Pasadena prices high? since Arcadia is relatively close to downtown L.A.

TheArcadian · June 19, 2008

TK,

My thinking is that if people are moving closer to downtown in order to save on gas, they would be hard pressed to pay a premium for housing.

Personally, I commute into downtown LA every day and it still takes me 45+ minutes to get to work. From Pasadena maybe, but from Arcadia it’s still a trek to get to work.

But I guess it wouldn’t surprise me if the Asian commuters in Diamond Bar and Rowland Heights consider moving to Arcadia as an option.

$1,825,000 605 Arbolada Dr Sold on Feb 05, 2008	4 br / 4 ba 3,473 Sq. Ft.
$1,385,000 201 Adams St Sold on Feb 05, 2008	3 br / 3 ba 3,716 Sq. Ft

	$1,235,000 1030 Heritage Oaks Dr	6 bd / 4 ba 3,265 Sq. Ft.
	$1,195,000 1030 Don Alvarado St	5 bd / 3 ba 3,015 Sq. Ft.
	$1,425,000 79 W Orange Grove Ave	4 bd / 2.75 ba 3,720 Sq. Ft.
	$1,295,000 230 Jameson Ct	4 bd / 3.5 ba 3,178 Sq. Ft.
	$1,295,000 448 W Grandview Ave	5 bd / 4 ba 3,821 Sq. Ft.