Author: TheArcadian
February 23, 2008
Welcome to AHB! As one of the authors of this site, I’d like to take the opportunity and briefly introduce myself.
I am a full-time analyst for a real estate development firm. My duties involve evaluating real estate acquisitions, studying market trends and determining the profitability of these investments. We routinely work with public builders and financial institutions so hopefully some of that knowledge trickles its way down to this blog. Through my work, I have witnessed first hand the unfolding of our nation’s housing and credit crisis and it has been ugly.
I rent within the San Gabriel Valley and very much hope to purchase a home in Arcadia one day. Although you may find us very critical of certain aspects in the city, Arcadia is still a very desirable place to live. It’s central location, good schools, beautiful homes and proximity to a variety of dining choices and entertainment are the major reasons why I want to buy here.
SavedbyGrace and I started this blog to analyze the state of our local housing market and share this information with all future and current homeowners out there. Although I believe that everyone should strive for a piece of the American Dream; risky financing, unmanageable debt and reckless financial decisions is not the way to attain it.
I hope for Arcadia Housing Blog to grow into a community where we can share ideas, provide advice to home buyers and accurately document local housing trends
Welcome to AHB. We look forward to hearing from you!
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If you are a ‘full time analyst for a real estate’ and you are renting that says a lot. I enjoy the technical analysis, it helps with decision making. Let us know when you buy – you may not be able to time the bottom perfectly, but I think you will have a good idea when it’s close.
Good Job!
Hi Sean, glad to have you as a reader!
I agree that it may be impossible to time the bottom. Fortunately, by evaluating widely available data, it is not difficult to determine when it “makes sense” to buy.
Fortunately there is no real need to time the bottom as real estate bottoms tend to last for months if not years. Real estate booms also tend to last for years, so investors can still make good money months after prices begin to rise.
The whole concept of “bottom” is an appeal to greed. Folks assume there is a short window of time where they can maximize their return. The truth is that bottoms are long, this isn’t like day trading stocks, and rate of return varies based on the location and type of property.
Even now, in a depreciating market, some flippers are making money. Why? Because they chose the individual property wisely. A rising tide does lift all boats, but an investor who researches the market can find a rising boat regardless of the tide.
Is this a coded plea to invest today? Hardly. It’s an open plea to ignore bottom callers and start researching, because there is nothing worse than stupid, lazy people with money waiting for the “bottom” so that they can buy anything with the expectation that they will make a fortune.
Forget timing the bottom. Start studying individual properties, locations, and sectors so that you can invest wisely regardless of overall market conditions.