Nope, Not Me

Patrick linked to an interesting article from Zillow yesterday on what homeowners believe about the housing market.

SEATTLE, Feb. 7 /PRNewswire/ — Despite repeated highly publicized reports of a home sales slump and pricing slides, there’s a surprising amount of positive consumer sentiment — and perhaps a good measure of homeowner denial as well: Even in a negative home pricing environment, 77 percent of homeowners from around the country believe the value of their home has increased or remained the same in 2007, according to a recent survey conducted by Harris Interactive®.

houseworthwhat.jpg There’s being hopeful and then there’s just being ignorant. In the wake of all this economic turmoil, three-quarters of the homeowners surveyed still believe the value of their home has not decreased. Amazing, just amazing.

This idea of “nope, not me” mentality is more destructive than just accepting the fact that we’re going through a housing correction. Homeowners who become sellers for whatever reason continue to list their asking prices above market value. This turns away the buyers who can afford that price range and simultaneously drives away others who would otherwise be in the market for that type of property.

I’ve said this before, but I’m going to repeat myself. Your house is only worth what buyers are willing to pay for it. It’s also a function what buyers are able to pay for it – which is a derivative of what kind of loan and how big of a loan they can qualify for. We’ve documented plenty of properties here at AHB that have been on the market for weeks and months on end because it’s not priced to sell and I suspect that’s consistent with many other areas.

This is also a reason why foreclosures are significant comp killers. The banks just want to unload the REO properties off their books at whatever cost the market is willing to bear. In the meantime, wishful homeowners are hanging on to their precious asking price as the market comps pull them down lower and lower each week. Among other financial and economic reasons, this will mainly be a foreclosure led housing correction. Unfortunately for most homedebtors, they won’t believe it until it’s too late.

  • See no evil
  • Hear no evil
  • Speak no evil

Too bad for them…it doesn’t work.

5 thoughts on “Nope, Not Me”

  1. Totally agree with you… there is a disconnect, but I think slowly but surely the gap will be closing.

    I looked up historical data on the Oil prices and prices at the pump. So for every $25 in the price of oil, gas prices should go up by $1.25. Huh, what… since Oil has gone up so quickly there is a lag time, and I am sure other technical things I am not aware of. But, if Oil prices maintain the $126 price point, gas prices should rise to $6.25.

    I understand that Oil is not as exciting as RE, but the word of the day is “Hyperinflation” and the bonus word for the day is “Recession”. What does this have to do with home price?

    Yes, I get it… It is all speculation, Oil couldn’t possibly be this expensive, eventually it is going to fall back to $40 to $50 bucks a barrel…. Really…. Doesn’t this sound a lot like the people that told you that Home Prices only go up….


    Record # of foreclosures happening and are impending

    Record Oil prices, and some predictions of $150 to $200 are out there.

    Record # of bankruptcies are impending…

    Unemployment is growing… especially in California…

    Again, how do you resolve any of these issues without going into a severe recession?

  2. Oil price can not keep going up with weakening economy. I guess one of the main reason for current high oil price is that investors has no where else to put their cheap money borrowed from the fed reserve bank.

  3. 77 percent of homeowners from around the country hope by voting Same or Increasing they will stop the market from falling.

    That poll must be off. Unless you have your head in the sand you have to know home prices are falling. Even if it said the same then it fell due to inflation.

    Nevertheless, as the media paints the world coming to an end, it’s hard to see in SoCal. Everything really goes on as normal. Costco is packed, SUV’s still fill the gas pump bays, the highways are still clogged, restaurants are busy, etc. I don’t see the pain, I just see a group of idiots who overpaid for there homes the past 3 years letting them go to the bank. But not enough homes for panic.

    I rent in a newer condo complex and there are 2-3 units for sale that are not selling, but it’s spring and with 400 units only 2-3 for sale isn’t that bad. If 40 were for sale then I would think yeah, this is a fire sale, but 2-3 is hardly enough to pick from.

    I see the writing on the wall, I listen to it on TV and the news, yet it seems like business as usual. It’s not the bubble mania, but it’s not the desperation I expected in troubled times.

  4. Blame part of this on the realtors who are not “real” with the sellers they take listing from. Also, I don’t thinks banks are all that desperate yet.

  5. Word has it that banks are holding onto a lot of inventory knowing that dishing it all into the market will just drive down values even further. They are hoping the Summer sell-off will prop up prices a bit.

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