For a while now I have estimated that Arcadia home prices will drop down to $250/sf for low-end condos, $300-350/sf for average single family homes and $400/sf in the most desirable neighborhoods. Of course, there are factors such at views, large lots, gated communities and property age that will command a premium beyond $400/sf.
Let’s take a look at 2 properties today that have recently sold. They are great examples of where prices are heading:
725 Tiffany Terrace
Arcadia, CA 91006
Sold For: $930,000 ($334/sf)
- Beds: 4
- Baths: 3
- Sqft: 2,777
- Year Built: 1985
We profiled this property back in February when AHB was just getting started. At the time, its DOM (days on market) was 101 and listed as a shortsale.
Oct 18, 1996 $470,000
June 5, 2007 $1,038,000
June 6, 2008 $930,000
Oct 28, 2007 $1,138,000
Nov 14, 2007 $1,080,000
Dec 18, 2997 $998,000
At $930,000, this home sold for $208,000 lower than the initial listing price of $1,138,000. There is even a possibility that the property never sold and was just taken back by the bank. What do you think?
The seller had put a $109,500 down payment on this home and lost the entire thing. How many people can stomach that kind of loss?
So $334/sf to live borderline Monrovia is still pretty high but this property’s history will drag down its neighborhood like a dead weight.
737 Sharon Rd.
Arcadia, CA 91007
Sold For: $1,160,000 ($291/sf)
- Beds: 4
- Baths: 4
- Sqft: 3,990
- Built in 1991
This is a large home located in an Ok area; right off Baldwin Ave. and 3 blocks South of the Pavilions and 99 Ranch plazas. One of the great phenomenons during the housing bubble was large homes selling for more dollars per square feet than comparable smaller properties. In a normal market, more square footage should yield a lower dollars/sf asking price.
We have seen many large properties asking (and selling!) for over $400/sf. Today, at $291/sf, this home will no doubt run chills down someone’s spine.
Feb 10, 1993 $600,000 ($150/sf)
May 28, 1996 $542,500 ($135/sf)
Jan 14, 2000 $570,000 ($143/sf)
Jul 08, 2008 $1,160,00 ($291/sf)
I won’t kid you though. Plenty of single family homes in Arcadia have sold for over $400/sf in the last 3 months. It will take 2-3 years for prices to fall within fundemental values and it will be interesting to see how low the outlying areas near Monrovia and El Monte will fall.
4 thoughts on “And the prices come tumbling…”
725 Tiffany does look like a flipper flopped. I wonder if someone could look into if this property indeed went back to the bank? If so, it should be coming out as a REO soon, perhaps at $800k or lower?
The 737 Sharon comp is in the Temple City Unified School District although it is in the City of Arcadia. This explains the seemingly low $ per square foot.
I appreciate the clarification and additional details. I took a look at the surrounding properties being sold in Temple City and even they are all listed and sold for $330/sf and upwards to $400/sf+.
When value properties, it’s important to keep in mind that the dollar value is only worth the half of what it used to be back to 2000, based on the commodity, gold, oil etc. price increase over the same period of time.
Therefore it’s very unlikely we will see the house price (nationwide) drop to the level around year 2000. 2003’s level is more likely and in arcadia area, it’d be very lucky to see the price going back to near 2003’s level. My hunch is arcadia’s house price will bottom at another 10% lower from this point, sometime towards the end of this year or earlier next year.
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