Arcadia will see additional 30% declines

I have no doubt that the following property could have sold for nearly $1MM back in 2006. Fast forward two years later and we have an owner who believes he can still get $888k for a property purchased for half a million dollars less just 9 years ago.

1317 Holly Ave
Arcadia, CA 91007

Price: $888,000 ($485/sf)

  • Beds: 4
  • Baths: 2.5
  • Sq. Ft.: 1,830
  • Lot Size: 6,510 Sq. Ft.
  • Year built: 1963

This is not a McMansion. It is a 45 year old home situated on the butt of other McMansions. Take a look at what I mean:

According to the description, this property is located “close to Million Dollar homes.” Is that why the seller thinks $485 per square foot is even a reasonable listing price? For almost $900k, you ge neight the larger lot size of your neighbors or even the newness of the surrounding McMansions.

Sales History

Apr 30, 1998 $275,000
Sep 01, 1999 $357,500 21.6%/yr

Applying the standard appreciation chart, we get a good idea of what this property is really worth:

Standard Straight-line Appreciation
After 9 years of ownership…

3%    $466,456    $233/sf
4%    $508,834    $254/sf
5%    $554,600    $277/sf
6%    $603,989    $302/sf

Current listing price: $888,000 ($485/sf)

Valuing this property at $302/sf means the listing is currently 32% overpriced. Do you find it hard to believe that Arcadia home prices will drop ~30% over the next 2 years?

4 thoughts on “Arcadia will see additional 30% declines”

  1. Looks like misinformation. Wouldn’t something this widespread have hit the major news outlets?

  2. If that was the case, I’d look forward for the immediate crash in our houisng market so prices can correct themselves.

    Unfortunately, it sounds too good to be true!

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